Hello
I have been reading about MGUS and statistics for progression. I understand that overall it is a 1% increase per year, or 26% at 25 years. Am I understanding this correctly that basically everyone with MGUS would eventually develop myeloma (or similar) if they all lived 100 years from diagnosis?
Just something I was curious about ...
Thanks!
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Re: MGUS risk of progression statistics
It's not that simple. There are different risks of progression for MGUS depending on various factors. Therefore, you can't lump all MGUSsers together. The differences between risks-of- progression over 20 years for MGUS is pretty dramatic based on which risk factors you have.
Also, the data that these various risk studies use in their analyses doesn't go as far back as 100 years. Therefore, you don't know if the curves plateau, decline or accelerate beyond what's shown on the graphs (which is typically about 20 years).
I suggest you read this article from the MB:
https://myelomabeacon.org/news/2010/08/16/mgus-and-smoldering-multiple-myeloma-experts-identify-risk-factors-for-disease-progression-and-establish-monitoring-guidelines-part-1-mgus/
There is an abstract referenced in the above link. That full article can be found here.
http://www.nature.com/leu/journal/v24/n6/full/leu201060a.html
Once you read through the above, you can then start to look at some of the more subtle nuances of understanding this kind of data by reading this MB article where I was raising similar questions about smoldering multiple myeloma risks-of-progression.
https://myelomabeacon.org/forum/risk-of-progression-smoldering-myeloma-t4027.html
Are you planning on living another 100 years?
Also, the data that these various risk studies use in their analyses doesn't go as far back as 100 years. Therefore, you don't know if the curves plateau, decline or accelerate beyond what's shown on the graphs (which is typically about 20 years).
I suggest you read this article from the MB:
https://myelomabeacon.org/news/2010/08/16/mgus-and-smoldering-multiple-myeloma-experts-identify-risk-factors-for-disease-progression-and-establish-monitoring-guidelines-part-1-mgus/
There is an abstract referenced in the above link. That full article can be found here.
http://www.nature.com/leu/journal/v24/n6/full/leu201060a.html
Once you read through the above, you can then start to look at some of the more subtle nuances of understanding this kind of data by reading this MB article where I was raising similar questions about smoldering multiple myeloma risks-of-progression.
https://myelomabeacon.org/forum/risk-of-progression-smoldering-myeloma-t4027.html
Are you planning on living another 100 years?
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Multibilly - Name: Multibilly
- Who do you know with myeloma?: Me
- When were you/they diagnosed?: Smoldering, Nov, 2012
2 posts
• Page 1 of 1