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Questions and discussion about smoldering myeloma (i.e., diagnosis, risk of progression, potential treatment, etc.)

Smoldering multiple myeloma statistics

by Jacqueline on Sat Feb 27, 2016 10:30 am

If they exist, where can we find recent statistics on smoldering myeloma?

I would like to know after how many years of stability can we be sure that myeloma will not progress?

I realize that each person with that disease evolves differently, but ...

My hematologist wrote that I was quite stable, but I would like to reassure myself.

Jacqueline
stage 1 IGG kappa

Jacqueline
Name: Jacqueline
When were you/they diagnosed?: november 2010
Age at diagnosis: 53

Re: Smoldering multiple myeloma statistics

by JimNY on Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:35 pm

Hi Jacqueline,

What sort of statistics are you thinking of?

If you're thinking about statistics related to the risk of smoldering myeloma progressing to symptomatic multiple myeloma, there is a really good discussion here in the forum in this thread:

"Risk of progression in smoldering multiple myeloma" (started Sep 13, 2014)

You will want to keep in mind that the discussion is a little bit out of date, because it uses statistics that were developed before the definition of symptomatic multiple myeloma was changed to include some people who were previously defined as smoldering.

Also keep in mind that data about progression from smoldering to symptomatic multiple myeloma doesn't really get out of date like, for example, data on the survival of symptomatic myeloma patients.

JimNY

Re: Smoldering multiple myeloma statistics

by Tracy J on Sat Feb 27, 2016 4:33 pm

Hi Jacqueline,

I don't have any statistics for you, but I think it's necessary to point out that even with solid statistics in hand, you still can't be sure of anything. Any individual course may be better or worse than the statistics would suggest. It's one of the most difficult aspects of a serious illness like this - so much of the future is unknown.

Tracy

Tracy J
Name: Tracy Jalbuena
Who do you know with myeloma?: Me
When were you/they diagnosed?: 2014
Age at diagnosis: 42

Re: Smoldering multiple myeloma statistics

by Multibilly on Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:20 pm

Hi Jacqueline,

As usual, Tracy and Jim make some great points

Specifically, the link Jim pointed to is a good thread for understanding the published risk of progression stats for smoldering myeloma in general, independent of individual risk factors.

"Risk of progression in smoldering multiple myeloma" (started Sep 13, 2014)

This very good article touches on all the latest factors that can impact risk of progression, including some of the more recent criteria such as cytogenetics:

"Review article - smoldering multiple myeloma" (started May 27, 2015)

Building off what Tracy stated, I've slowly accepted that the various figures published for smoldering myeloma risk of progression are indeed just an aggregation of population statistics and every patient is unique. I therefore do not dwell so much on these kind of stats as I did when I was first diagnosed. If I progress, then I will simply progress, whether it be in 1, 5, 20 years ... or never. There simply is no way to accurately predict what is going to happen in my particular situation.

To my thinking, the really tough questions regarding risk of progression for smoldering patients is whether one would do anything differently if that patient knew they were at a high risk of progression? Specifically, the question of whether one would elect to enter into an early treatment trial based on having a higher risk of progression profile or not (regardless of whose risk of progression criteria you use) is probably one of the hardest questions for a smoldering myeloma patient to answer.

Multibilly
Name: Multibilly
Who do you know with myeloma?: Me
When were you/they diagnosed?: Smoldering, Nov, 2012


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