I do not know what the statistics show about whether the incidence of myeloma is increasing. But yesterday I was scheduling an MRI for my foot and the scheduler asked me a series of questions including whether I ever had cancer. When I told here that I have multiple myeloma she said it seems like everyone has it these days. So I asked her if she was seeing a lot it these days and she said yes.
This was at an orthopedic office not associated with a hospital or cancer center. Obviously purely anecdotal and unscientific, but interesting.
Forums
5 posts
• Page 1 of 1
Re: Is the incidence of myeloma increasing?
Hi Andrew,
The statistics show that the incidence has been going up. However, it may not be the incidence, but rather the prevalence, of myeloma that is behind the sort of anecdote that you described.
Incidence is the number of new cases of a disease per year. Prevalence is the number of people who have the disease at a given time.
Incidence has increased maybe 10 percent in the last 10 years, going from about 6 new cases of multiple myeloma per 100,000 people in the U.S. in the year 2000, to about 6.5 new cases per 100,000 people in 2011. (Those rates adjust for changes in the age distribution of the population.)
It's harder to find numbers, though, on the change in the prevalence of myeloma. For 2013, the estimated number of people with myeloma in the U.S. was 83,400. Can anyone find what the number of people with myeloma in the U.S. was in, say, 2000?
We suspect that, because of the increased survival of myeloma patients over the past 10 years or so, the prevalence of people with myeloma has gone up much more than the incidence. And it's the prevalence that is behind why you are seeing more people with myeloma at places like the MRI center that you visited.
The statistics show that the incidence has been going up. However, it may not be the incidence, but rather the prevalence, of myeloma that is behind the sort of anecdote that you described.
Incidence is the number of new cases of a disease per year. Prevalence is the number of people who have the disease at a given time.
Incidence has increased maybe 10 percent in the last 10 years, going from about 6 new cases of multiple myeloma per 100,000 people in the U.S. in the year 2000, to about 6.5 new cases per 100,000 people in 2011. (Those rates adjust for changes in the age distribution of the population.)
It's harder to find numbers, though, on the change in the prevalence of myeloma. For 2013, the estimated number of people with myeloma in the U.S. was 83,400. Can anyone find what the number of people with myeloma in the U.S. was in, say, 2000?
We suspect that, because of the increased survival of myeloma patients over the past 10 years or so, the prevalence of people with myeloma has gone up much more than the incidence. And it's the prevalence that is behind why you are seeing more people with myeloma at places like the MRI center that you visited.
-
Boris Simkovich - Name: Boris Simkovich
Founder
The Myeloma Beacon
Re: Is the incidence of myeloma increasing?
Hi Boris, I looked up the population census data in Wikipedia and it looks like this for the U.S., which is the third most populated country in the world.
2014 POP'N 318,400,000 (as of today, so that must be an estimate)
2000 census data Pop'n 281,500,000
1990 census data Pop'n 248,800,000
Since the data is 'age adjusted', you can't simply calculate on 6 persons per 100,000. But, if you subtract the 2000 popn. from the 2014 pop'n, then the difference would be almost 34 million. Divided by 100,000 = 34,000. So, at an incidence of 6/100,000, = 204 fewer people would have been diagnosed with myeloma in 2000 than in 2014.
Between 1990 and 2014, the increase in pop'n was almost 70 million, so the age adjusted nos. dx'd then would have been about 400 fewer people (34 x 2 = 68).
But because survival rates are going up, that is just one factor of the problem as to the prevalence.
2014 POP'N 318,400,000 (as of today, so that must be an estimate)
2000 census data Pop'n 281,500,000
1990 census data Pop'n 248,800,000
Since the data is 'age adjusted', you can't simply calculate on 6 persons per 100,000. But, if you subtract the 2000 popn. from the 2014 pop'n, then the difference would be almost 34 million. Divided by 100,000 = 34,000. So, at an incidence of 6/100,000, = 204 fewer people would have been diagnosed with myeloma in 2000 than in 2014.
Between 1990 and 2014, the increase in pop'n was almost 70 million, so the age adjusted nos. dx'd then would have been about 400 fewer people (34 x 2 = 68).
But because survival rates are going up, that is just one factor of the problem as to the prevalence.
-
Nancy Shamanna - Name: Nancy Shamanna
- Who do you know with myeloma?: Self and others too
- When were you/they diagnosed?: July 2009
Re: Is the incidence of myeloma increasing?
I wonder how many people die never knowing they had multiple myeloma? My assumption is that a higher percentage died without knowing 20 years ago vs today.
I knew I had something going on 2 years before I was diagnosed. I finally demanded more detailed blood work from my primary care physician, which revealed my multiple myeloma.
I knew I had something going on 2 years before I was diagnosed. I finally demanded more detailed blood work from my primary care physician, which revealed my multiple myeloma.
-
stann
Re: Is the incidence of myeloma increasing?
I never knew the difference between incidence and prevalence. Very interesting. Thank you all for posting this information.
Stann - I've wondered that myself, if people may have had myeloma and just not known it. With advances in medicine and diagnostics we are much more aware.
Stann - I've wondered that myself, if people may have had myeloma and just not known it. With advances in medicine and diagnostics we are much more aware.
-
Toni - Name: Toni
- Who do you know with myeloma?: self - MGUS
- When were you/they diagnosed?: April 2014
- Age at diagnosis: 51
5 posts
• Page 1 of 1