A recent article published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology estimated that the number of cancer patients in the United States will increase 45 percent, from 1.6 million to 2.3 million by 2030. Multiple myeloma is expected to increase 57 percent, trailing liver cancer at 59 percent and stomach cancer at 67 percent.

Dr. Benjamin Smith, adjunct assistant professor in M. D. Anderson’s Department of Radiation Oncology at The University of Texas, conducted the study.

Researchers used the United States’ Census Bureau’s population growth projections from August 2008 through 2050. The estimations were segmented by sex, race, and origin from age zero through 100 years old. Race was divided into white, black, Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaska Native, and multiracial. Origin categories were either non-Hispanic or Hispanic.

They obtained cancer incidence rates from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, which were segmented into age, race, and origin categories. Cancer incidence rates measure the risk of developing a particular cancer.

The SEER database represented 26 percent of the United State’s population, and 23 types of cancers were included in the study. The census and SEER database used the same origin categories. However, the Asian and Pacific Islander race categories from the census data had to be combined to match the race categories in the SEER database.

Cancer incidence projections were calculated through 2030 by multiplying the population projections by the cancer incidence rates by categories (age, sex, race, and origin). Multi-racial individuals were assigned a cancer incidence rate equal to that of the total population, and the study defined minority peoples as non-white or Hispanic origin.

While diagnoses in older Americans are estimated to increase 67 percent, only an 11 percent increase was calculated for Americans under age 65. The incidence of cancer is expected to increase nearly 100 percent for minorities, compared with only 31 percent for non-Hispanic whites. This surge is attributed to an increase in diagnoses of all cancers in the minority population.

Projections for 2030 estimate that prostate, breast, lung, and colorectum cancers will remain the most common types of cancer. The study also indicates that through 2030, the types of cancer with the greatest increases in risk will be stomach, liver, myeloma, pancreas, and bladder cancers.

The estimates are based on the assumption that the risk of developing cancer in each age, sex, race, and origin specific categories will remain constant over the next 20 years.

These findings quantify the need to improve current cancer diagnostic, therapy, and research focus. With more cancer patients over the age of 65, clinical trials need to be conducted to test preventive measures and treatments for this age group. Furthermore, minorities are underrepresented in research studies and clinical trials.

The authors warn that the surge of cancer diagnoses in the next 20 years can become a large burden on the health care system as more resources are needed. In addition to training more geriatric oncologists, improving prevention strategies should also be a focus. Intervening with alcohol and tobacco use, removal of premalignant polyps, and emphasizing cost-effective use of medical resources are recommended.

For more information, access the full article online in the Journal of Clinical Oncology (pdf).